Chess or Poker? Making Decisions in Uncertain Times

Are we playing chess or poker?

Decision-making and strategy in the time of COVID feel strange. While it has always been true that we can't know the future. Pre-COVID, we at least had a general idea of how things would go. Amid everything going on in the world –we recognize how little we can predict what the future may hold. In an interview with Wharton business school, author Maria Konnikova shared a helpful analogy about decision-making: are we playing chess or poker? Think of the difference between chess and poker. In chess, you have all the information, you can see the whole landscape, and because of that, you have a better ability to predict your opponent’s move, and decide what you want to do. 

Playing poker is entirely different. You have to make the best decisions you can with what you know about the cards you have, what you think you know, and what you discern about the others playing a game. In a crisis, we feel like we should be playing chess, but we are really playing poker. We can't see the whole game board. We are not going to have perfect information. So we must use what information we do have and our experience to make our best decisions. The greatest lesson I think we can learn from this is that we will never have all the information. Instead, we have to find ways to get the best information we can and then make the best decision we can with the information we have. So what are the cards in your hand? Here are three things you have that can help with decision-making:

Values–What are the 2 or 3 core values that set you apart from other organizations? It is essential to look at decision making with those values top of mind. How do you know what your values are? My favorite test from Patrick Lencioni is -what are you willing to get in trouble for? If itssomething so vital to you that you are ready to take flack for it, it's most likely a core value. 

Your strategic goals–We tell our clients that your strategic plan is your compass that points to your true north. When someone gives you $1,000,000, your plan tells you how to spend it. Likewise, if you have to tighten your belt because of an economic crisis, it guides how you cut. So,what are your strategic goals, and how does the decision drive your impact?-

Listening with the community–What do the people or persons you exist to serve want? What are their dreams? How dothey define success? While we might think we know what is best for others, deep listening with others and understanding their pains and gains can help us in our decision-making